Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

E8 0xe8b2…a4ce sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$50 (+9%) realized +$123 · open −$73

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown27%max

Avg bet$81per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+34.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	1	+78.6%	+61.6%	100%	100%	+61.6%
all	6	+48.6%	+34.4%	50%	50%	+2.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+34.4%	50%	+2.2%
10%	+21.6%	50%	-7.6%
15%	+9.8%	50%	-16.5%
20%	-0.9%	50%	-24.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 67% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +79% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +49% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$29 vs −$9 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized+$123

Unrealized−$73

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage261d

Avg bet$81

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown27%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	14¢	4¢	$99	$26	−$73 (-74%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Pistons vs. Lakers	May 25	$34	+$26	+79%
Chargers vs. Cowboys	Dec 21	$16	−$16	-100%
Chargers vs. Chiefs	Dec 21	$26	+$60	+233%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nov 16	$2	+$3	+104%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?	Nov 15	$338	$0	-0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?	Oct 08	$48	−$12	-24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	14¢	$102	1h
Pistons vs. Lakers	BUY Pistons	56¢	$34	178d
Chargers vs. Cowboys	BUY Cowboys	54¢	$16	187d
Chargers vs. Chiefs	BUY Chargers	30¢	$26	194d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	BUY Nuggets	49¢	$2	223d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$338	223d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$338	223d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?	SELL Yes	1¢	$36	261d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$48	261d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.20 · official $19.47 · 12 history records