Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8b1…8ba9 world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%24W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$2
other 16% −$1
politics 16% $0
economics 7% $0
sports 5% −$16
crypto 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.0% -11.3% 30% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -0.7% -10.1% 41% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 62 -2.2% -11.5% 34% 3% -9.7%
all 68 -2.3% -11.6% 35% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 6% -10.1%
10% -20.0% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.8% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage537d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $74 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $68 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $37 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $42 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $72 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $69 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $7 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $81 −$10 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $38 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $14 +$2 +11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $14 +$1 +9%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $9 $0 +3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $42 $0 -0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 09 $79 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $125 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $76 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $88 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $2 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 30 $38 +$4 +11%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 29 $37 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $8 36m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 36m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $8 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $24 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $3 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $37 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $37 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $34 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $33 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $0.00 · 270 history records