Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe8b0…cc4b other 393 markets active 0h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,923 (-5%) realized −$4,167 · open +$244
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%226W / 141L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$4,846now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,368
7 days+$1,159
14 days−$4,183
30 days−$1,477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$5,155
sports 7% +$1,712
world 1% −$75
economics 0% +$16
crypto 0% −$10
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +7.5% -2.7% 55% 55% -3.4%
≤30d 86 +6.2% -4.0% 57% 56% -13.0%
≤90d 240 -0.0% -9.5% 60% 56% -12.6%
all 367 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 57% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 57% -13.9%
10% -19.9% 45% -22.1%
15% -27.6% 35% -29.6%
20% -34.7% 25% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$179 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$4,846
Realized−$4,167
Unrealized+$244
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses226 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions18
Markets (closed)367 / 393
History coverage202d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $502 $502 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $504 $500 −$4 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 84¢ $250 $401 +$151 (+61%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 63¢ $251 $385 +$134 (+53%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 66¢ $249 $286 +$37 (+15%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $252 $284 +$32 (+13%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 36¢ $100 $277 +$177 (+177%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $251 $254 +$3 (+1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 65¢ $252 $234 −$18 (-7%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $250 $217 −$33 (-13%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $250 $202 −$48 (-19%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $101 $107 +$6 (+6%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $101 $35 −$66 (-65%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $100 $35 −$65 (-65%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $90 $25 −$65 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $255 −$123 -48%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 28 $105 +$395 +376%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $508 +$603 +119%
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup Jun 28 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 28 $502 +$335 +67%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $506 −$498 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $404 −$404 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $248 +$152 +61%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 27 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $507 +$386 +76%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,011 +$315 +31%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $505 +$236 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $506 +$258 +51%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $253 −$253 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $504 +$210 +42%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $509 +$654 +129%
Will Haiti be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 25 $252 −$86 -34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,516 +$799 +53%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $50 −$11 -22%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $507 −$393 -77%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $219 −$198 -90%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $255 −$254 -100%
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $251 +$51 +20%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 24 $252 +$98 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$10 -37%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $505 +$252 +50%
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $252 −$75 -30%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $504 −$337 -67%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $248 −$228 -92%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,010 −$1,448 -72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 23 $252 +$88 +35%
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup Jun 23 $251 −$69 -28%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $504 +$206 +41%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $254 +$227 +90%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $506 +$356 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $505 +$264 +52%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $250 −$48 -19%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $505 +$230 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 +$230 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $760 +$712 +94%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $251 +$79 +32%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $508 −$508 -100%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $299 +$41 +14%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $504 −$135 -27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,003 +$725 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $358 9m
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $57 56m
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 1h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 1h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $502 1h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 1h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 1h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $132 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $256 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 13h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $252 13h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 13h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY No 55¢ $253 15h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $43 19h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $8 19h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $14 19h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $163 19h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $7 20h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $0 20h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $5 20h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $8 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $404 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 89¢ $765 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,845.56 · official $4,845.56 (match) · 1046 history records