Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8ac…7b93 crypto 35 markets active 3d ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$189 (-0%) realized −$189 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,223per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$232
14 days−$232
30 days−$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$89
economics 41% −$15
other 0% −$97
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -55.3% -59.6% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 21 -46.7% -51.8% 33% 5% -10.1%
≤90d 25 -38.6% -44.4% 44% 8% -10.1%
all 33 -31.9% -38.3% 55% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 6% -9.9%
10% -44.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -49.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -54.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage196d
Avg bet$1,223
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 28? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moderates be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 14 $8,644 −$15 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $8,697 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8,692 −$12 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 13 $8,699 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 27 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 19 $2 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 25 $2 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? Feb 22 $1 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 22 $4 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Jan 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 8? Dec 08 $7,822 +$32 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 30? Dec 08 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 3d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.42 · official $3.42 (match) · 249 history records