Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E8 0xe8aa…e4d1 sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$111 (+6%) realized +$136 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%31W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$133
other 22% +$73
world 2% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +27.2% +15.1% 50% 50% +0.4%
≤30d 62 +27.2% +15.1% 50% 50% +0.4%
≤90d 62 +27.2% +15.1% 50% 50% +0.4%
all 62 +27.2% +15.1% 50% 50% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 50% +0.4%
10% +4.1% 50% -9.2%
15% -6.0% 45% -17.9%
20% -15.2% 42% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$27 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses31 / 31
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage4d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 22¢ $63 $34 −$29 (-46%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Yes 36¢ 48¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$18 +118%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$18 +79%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$61 +200%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $9 +$38 +414%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $41 +$44 +109%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$74 +250%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $49 +$16 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $70 −$69 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $22 +$46 +206%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $66 +$37 +57%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $28 +$37 +129%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $71 +$58 +82%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $49 +$24 +50%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $51 +$51 +101%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $41 +$28 +70%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $50 −$49 -99%
Kai Havertz: 3+ goals Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $27 +$22 +82%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $42 +$72 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $51 +$27 +53%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$44 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $10 +$67 +650%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$42 +414%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $19 +$19 +99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $49 −$49 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $26 −$26 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $64 31m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $15 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $41 13h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $9 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $23 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY 33¢ $31 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $49 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $9 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $50 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $9 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $20 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 34h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 34h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 42h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $69 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.89 · official $57.89 (match) · 104 history records