trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$19 | +1843% |
| Will Argentina vs. Zambia end in a draw? | Apr 01 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-03-31? | Apr 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will United States vs. Portugal end in a draw? | Apr 01 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 29 | $183 | −$183 | -100% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | Apr 28 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 23 | $8 | −$3 | -38% |
| TikTok sale announced before May? | Apr 20 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 20 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | Apr 19 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Karoline Leavitt say "Elon" or "Musk" during next White House pre | Apr 19 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Karoline Leavitt say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during next White Hous | Apr 19 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | Apr 19 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | Apr 19 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 16 | $51 | −$51 | -100% |
| Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? | Apr 15 | $29 | −$29 | -100% |
| Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 15 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 15 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 15 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? | Apr 15 | $40 | −$7 | -18% |
| Will Carney say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Canadian Election Debate | Apr 15 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Apr 13 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1842.6% | +1657.6% | 100% | 100% | +1657.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +1842.6% | +1657.6% | 100% | 100% | +1657.6% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +288.5% | +251.5% | 20% | 20% | +261.6% |
| all | 26 | -19.7% | -27.4% | 4% | 4% | -90.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -27.4% | 4% | -90.5% |
| 10% | -34.3% | 4% | -91.4% |
| 15% | -40.7% | 4% | -92.3% |
| 20% | -46.5% | 4% | -93.0% |