Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8a9…0151 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$2
other 23% +$2
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 18 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 0% -9.1%
all 35 -2.2% -11.5% 49% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage474d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $81 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $25 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $18 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $44 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Mar 20 $11 $0 +1%
UCLA vs. Northwestern Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $39 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $39 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $43 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $42 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $27 23h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $45 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $45 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $40 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $24 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $5 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $12 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records