Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8a4…a7fc sports 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 23% −$1
other 21% −$3
politics 17% −$2
economics 15% −$4
crypto 8% −$1
world 6% $0
culture 6% −$1
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 168 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 157
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage167d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 18 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 21 $316 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $6 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $120 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $102 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $178 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $49 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 13d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $51 26d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $52 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 92¢ $52 33d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $52 34d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $1 119d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 120d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $34 120d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 121d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 121d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $2 121d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $2 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $5 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $5 121d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $7 121d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $7 121d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $3 121d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $3 121d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $1 121d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 95¢ $2 121d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 95¢ $2 121d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $4 121d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $4 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 121d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $6 121d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $6 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 555 history records