Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe8a2…54c2 world 374 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,677 (-1%) realized −$4,356 · open −$321
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate56%204W / 162L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,067per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,351
7 days+$2,441
14 days+$1,570
30 days+$5,450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$15,388
other 19% +$7,101
politics 14% +$1,059
crypto 3% −$421
economics 3% +$51
finance 2% −$424
tech 1% −$410
sports 1% +$1,961
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -27.3% -34.2% 48% 39% +19.2%
≤30d 136 -12.4% -20.8% 46% 25% -3.8%
≤90d 263 +3.9% -6.0% 54% 29% -6.4%
all 366 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 31% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 31% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 23% -19.5%
15% -24.3% 14% -27.3%
20% -31.7% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$911) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$334 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$951
Realized−$4,356
Unrealized−$321
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses204 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions8
Markets (closed)366 / 374
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,067
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $249 $270 +$21 (+8%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $217 $221 +$4 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $144 $162 +$18 (+12%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $118 $111 −$7 (-6%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $255 $61 −$194 (-76%)
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 4¢ 5¢ $48 $56 +$8 (+17%)
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 4¢ 5¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+23%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 24¢ 3¢ $209 $30 −$179 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $2,755 +$2,513 +91%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $432 +$68 +16%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 23 $275 +$243 +88%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 23 $26 +$5 +19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 23 $11 +$7 +63%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $2,281 +$535 +24%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $112 +$13 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $176 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $50 +$28 +56%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 8-14? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 8-14? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 18 $316 −$316 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 18 $501 −$145 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 18 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $153 +$37 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8,046 +$344 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $18 +$82 +456%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $39 −$10 -25%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $390 −$338 -87%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $1,000 −$564 -56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $460 +$593 +129%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 12 $551 −$11 -2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $737 −$119 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $890 −$26 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 12 $1,300 −$100 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $8,194 +$224 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $603 −$13 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $205 −$205 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 10 $638 −$638 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $392 +$1 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,213 −$14 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $409 −$92 -22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $179 −$156 -87%
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 09 $155 −$1 -0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 08 $19 +$4 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $338 +$32 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $838 −$440 -52%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $911 +$72 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $101 +$419 +417%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 07 $119 +$125 +105%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $102 +$197 +193%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $39 0m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $79 0m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 77¢ $1,665 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 76¢ $1,424 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 77¢ $1,019 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $27 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $36 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $47 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $219 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $102 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $30 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $10 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $1 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $32 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $21 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $432 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $13 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $31 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $18 7h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 10h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 10h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 21¢ $11 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $26 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $812 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 100¢ $684 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 100¢ $100 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 100¢ $100 25h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $221 25h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $950.88 · official $951.29 (match) · 2974 history records