Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe89f…0034 other 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,007 (-1%) realized −$2,001 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate23%29W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,336per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,012now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$2,548
politics 38% −$71
sports 6% +$624
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$6
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$19
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 -7.0% -15.8% 10% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 70 -12.0% -20.4% 6% 1% -11.9%
all 124 +4.4% -5.5% 23% 12% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 12% -10.6%
10% -14.6% 12% -19.2%
15% -22.8% 10% -27.0%
20% -30.4% 8% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,867) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$1,012
Realized−$2,001
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses29 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage137d
Avg bet$1,336
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $682 $682 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 97¢ $336 $330 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $6,839 −$7 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,253 −$4 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,242 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $3,351 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,684 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $68 +$58 +86%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,799 −$5 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,671 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $303 +$1 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,420 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $442 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,041 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,279 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,670 −$3 -0%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,562 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 20 $1,287 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $4,890 −$6 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $987 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,729 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $3,151 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $983 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $3,570 −$4 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $2,740 −$3 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $2,760 −$3 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $3,110 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,292 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $682 5m
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $895 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $201 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $695 4h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $783 45h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $783 47h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $865 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $867 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $858 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $859 4d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $336 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,112 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,114 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,043 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,044 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $817 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $819 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $897 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $898 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $864 10d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $866 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,151 11d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,152 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,011 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,013 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $53 13d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $68 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,011.80 · official $1,011.80 (match) · 405 history records