Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe89a…7996 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%94W / 5L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$10
crypto 15% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 20 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 99 -3.9% -13.1% 95% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 2% -9.1%
10% -21.4% 0% -17.8%
15% -29.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses94 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage468d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on May May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 25 $42 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $42 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 16 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 28 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 13? Mar 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 13 $39 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Mar 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? Feb 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? Jan 31 $38 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 16 $37 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jan 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Jan 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jan 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 18? Dec 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 24 $31 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on December Dec 18 $1 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on December 7? Dec 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 27? Dec 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on No Dec 07 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 07 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 19? Nov 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 November 17-23? Nov 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in November 2025? Nov 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 3? Nov 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 9d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 11d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 14d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 22d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 24d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 33d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on May BUY No 100¢ $2 38d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 38d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 49d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 53d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 59d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 63d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 69d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 72d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 81d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 86d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $3 86d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $2 86d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 96d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 96d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 106d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $39 125d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $39 133d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? BUY No 100¢ $39 137d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 153d
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $37 164d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY No 99¢ $30 175d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 199 history records