Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe899…0899
politics · 53 markets active 6d ago
0.0score
+$121,407 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$111,394 · open −$762
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32,879
Realized+$111,394
Unrealized−$762
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses33 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage202d
Avg bet$59,588
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 6 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,520
7 days+$49,731
14 days+$49,731
30 days+$57,536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $19,261 $27,243 +$7,982 (+41%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9,311 $4,755 −$4,556 (-49%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $574 $597 +$23 (+4%)
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? Yes 47¢ 36¢ $351 $274 −$77 (-22%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $4,145 $11 −$4,134 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 60¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+46%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $558 $0 −$558 (-100%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $354 $0 −$354 (-100%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $4,243 $0 −$4,243 (-100%)
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $4,800 $0 −$4,800 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $9,006 +$3,147 +35%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $7,293 +$3,373 +46%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $231,378 +$48,012 +21%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $7,731 +$7,804 +101%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 12 $354 −$354 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $506,468 +$8,732 +2%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $95,500 +$4,500 +5%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 31 $558 −$558 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 24 $4,243 −$4,243 -100%
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between Mar 21 $7 +$1 +9%
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between Mar 21 $220 +$12 +5%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Mar 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? Mar 19 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Mar 19 $278 −$278 -100%
Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025? Mar 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Mar 19 $9,000 −$9,000 -100%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 09 $16,614 +$1,250 +8%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $78,796 +$2,952 +4%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $579,420 +$580 +0%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 04 $6,298 +$1,292 +20%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 04 $5,424 +$1,579 +29%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $1,370 +$373 +27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $7,276 −$7,186 -99%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $5,400 +$4,600 +85%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 27 $3,400 +$1,600 +47%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 20 $41,613 +$15,728 +38%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $56,769 −$38,701 -68%
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? Feb 04 $45,389 +$2,916 +6%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Feb 04 $54,301 +$2,957 +5%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 04 $60,329 +$2,435 +4%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 03 $335,458 +$8,207 +2%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Feb 02 $267,743 +$882 +0%
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $15,837 +$50 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $370,896 +$11,006 +3%
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? Jan 31 $41,575 +$1,431 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 13 $81,000 −$2,000 -2%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Jan 02 $4,970 +$119 +2%
Will Matt Van Epps win TN-7 Special Election? Dec 04 $31,333 +$2,607 +8%
Will Van Epps win TN-07 by 5–10%? Dec 03 $7,000 +$2,900 +41%
Will Aftyn Behn win TN-7 Special Election? Dec 03 $36,457 +$2,824 +8%
Will Lisa Murkowski vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025? Nov 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Congress passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Nov 19 $3,371 +$499 +15%
Will 300 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure res Nov 19 $46,953 +$171 +0%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Nov 18 $16,189 +$34,872 +215%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Nov 17 $515 −$113 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 52% +$62,705
economics 21% +$3,532
world 21% +$1,412
other 7% +$42,981
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $19,457 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 97¢ $2 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $7,808 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $58,559 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $488 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $975 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $975 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $780 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $15,711 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 97¢ $5 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $11,700 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $14,625 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $1,170 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $45,195 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $49 5d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 98¢ $15,481 5d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes 25¢ $15 6d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes 25¢ $6 6d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes 25¢ $15 6d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes 25¢ $1,818 6d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes 25¢ $100 6d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes 25¢ $250 6d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes 25¢ $296 6d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 6¢ $2,284 7d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 90¢ $3,535 7d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,892 7d
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL No 92¢ $3,256 7d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 91¢ $6,726 7d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes 23¢ $2,260 8d
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec BUY Yes 23¢ $40 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 75% +8.3%
≤30d 5 +20.6% +9.1% 80% 80% +10.5%
≤90d 18 -43.1% -48.6% 44% 22% -3.8%
all 48 -8.1% -16.9% 69% 27% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 27% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 21% -15.2%
15% -32.1% 15% -23.4%
20% -38.8% 6% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,879.49 · official $32,879.39 (match) · 3500 history records