Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe899…4a11 crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 385d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,316 (-8%) realized −$2,316 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%38W / 27L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$424per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$611
7 days−$611
14 days−$611
30 days−$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,773
politics 1% −$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 33% -37.7%
≤30d 27 -4.3% -13.4% 56% 48% -19.2%
≤90d 27 -4.3% -13.4% 56% 48% -19.2%
all 65 -5.0% -14.1% 58% 51% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 51% -19.6%
10% -22.3% 29% -27.3%
15% -29.8% 23% -34.3%
20% -36.7% 18% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$225 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses38 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage385d
Avg bet$424
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $410 −$410 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $762 −$298 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $205 +$116 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $401 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$69 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 03 $103 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $52 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 03 $52 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 03 $304 +$50 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 03 $11 +$23 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $103 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 03 $200 +$219 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 14 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 14 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 14 $1,300 +$121 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 14 $200 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 14 $490 +$73 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 14 $1,200 +$180 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 14 $700 +$111 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 14 $100 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 14 $200 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 11 $90 −$86 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 11 $100 +$60 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 11 $30 +$161 +537%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 11 $37 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 11 $100 +$44 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 11 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 11 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jan 11 $299 −$299 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 11 $4,000 +$165 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $28 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $27 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $410 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $451 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $311 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $401 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $72 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $69 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $354 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $304 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $34 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $136 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records