Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E8 0xe899…a588 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$108 (+12%) realized +$81 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +127% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +105% what you keep after slip
Net edge+105%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$178
crypto 20% +$28
culture 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+105.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +462.0% +408.5% 71% 57% +66.7%
≤30d 25 +221.2% +190.6% 44% 40% +25.1%
≤90d 48 +126.7% +105.1% 35% 33% +17.2%
all 48 +126.7% +105.1% 35% 33% +17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +105.1% 33% +17.2%
10% +85.5% 29% +6.0%
15% +67.6% 27% -4.2%
20% +51.1% 27% -13.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +127% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +233% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$7 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Open positions12
Markets (closed)48 / 60
History coverage63d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $200 $240 +$40 (+20%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 28 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran Jun 28 $1 +$6 +533%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Jun 28 $4 +$35 +887%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P Jun 27 $0 +$11 +15336%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $0 +$2 +3184%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $15 +$52 +337%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $7 +$15 +218%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $18 −$6 -33%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $9 +$24 +264%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 +$49 +461%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $53 −$39 -73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 29 $21 −$14 -64%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 23 $12 +$96 +791%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $89 −$2 -3%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 18 $16 −$12 -74%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 18 $11 −$5 -46%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $11 +$39 +364%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $11 +$34 +317%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $10 +$11 +106%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $10 +$12 +120%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Apr 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 2¢ $2 59m
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 2¢ $0 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 10¢ $35 1h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran SELL Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand SELL Yes 40¢ $39 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P SELL Yes 78¢ $11 24h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 2¢ $0 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 24h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 12d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 12d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 12d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 12d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 12d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.26 · official $311.55 (match) · 230 history records