Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe896…a84d crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,660 (-44%) realized −$2,660 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$749per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,660
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -36.9% -42.9% 25% 25% -49.9%
≤30d 8 -36.9% -42.9% 25% 25% -49.9%
≤90d 8 -36.9% -42.9% 25% 25% -49.9%
all 8 -36.9% -42.9% 25% 25% -49.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.9% 25% -49.9%
10% -48.4% 25% -54.7%
15% ← realistic here -53.4% 25% -59.0%
20% -58.0% 25% -63.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$975 vs −$768 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,660
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$749
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $983 −$983 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $937 +$1,221 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $988 −$988 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $892 −$892 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $433 −$409 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $418 +$729 +174%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $394 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,764 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records