Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe896…2698 sports 315 markets active 8h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$222 (-5%) realized −$238 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%102W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days+$105
14 days+$75
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$58
other 35% −$251
economics 3% −$51
culture 1% +$13
world 1% −$28
weather 0% +$28
politics 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +28.2% +16.0% 32% 32% +29.3%
≤30d 139 +3.1% -6.7% 33% 33% -11.0%
≤90d 139 +3.1% -6.7% 33% 33% -11.0%
all 297 +1.4% -8.3% 34% 33% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 33% -14.3%
10% -17.0% 32% -22.5%
15% -25.1% 30% -30.0%
20% -32.4% 26% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$238
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses102 / 195
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions8
Markets (closed)297 / 315
History coverage236d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+253%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+124%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -93%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 +$24 +338%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$50 +103%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -29%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -97%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$74 +360%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$33 +641%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $32 +$45 +144%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $13 +$14 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +73%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$1 -6%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $15 +$13 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 −$3 -52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $12 −$7 -54%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$8 -82%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $9 +$4 +38%
Spread: Botafogo FC (-2.5) Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Botafogo FC (-1.5) Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5) Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5) May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? May 31 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $33 +$9 +27%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $20 +$28 +140%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $48 +$57 +120%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 31 $10 −$4 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 1¢ $0 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 90¢ $31 13h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $6 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 20¢ $7 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 31h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 33h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 20¢ $5 33h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 16¢ $10 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 34h
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 2¢ $5 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 34h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 4¢ $1 36h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 4¢ $2 36h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 3¢ $0 36h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 37h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.44 · official $66.44 (match) · 813 history records