Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:11:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe893…afae sports 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,656 (-14%) realized −$2,771 · open +$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%56W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$361
14 days−$511
30 days−$1,692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,094
other 3% −$578
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 47% -1.6%
≤30d 93 -14.1% -22.3% 41% 39% -23.6%
≤90d 141 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 38% -22.8%
all 141 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 38% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 38% -22.8%
10% -24.2% 37% -30.2%
15% -31.5% 35% -36.9%
20% -38.2% 33% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$121 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized−$2,771
Unrealized+$115
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses56 / 85
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage70d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 75¢ 100¢ $188 $250 +$62 (+33%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Natus Vincere 54¢ 100¢ $61 $113 +$52 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 26 $63 +$120 +190%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $214 +$311 +146%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $112 −$110 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $59 −$58 -97%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $19 +$30 +158%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $65 +$74 +114%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: largadosypelados (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) Jun 25 $56 +$54 +97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $92 +$36 +40%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 25 $363 −$359 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $190 −$188 -99%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $453 +$147 +32%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $43 +$51 +119%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $38 −$36 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $168 +$9 +5%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $45 −$44 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $265 +$234 +88%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $18 −$17 -99%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $63 −$62 -98%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $175 −$18 -10%
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) Jun 23 $63 +$61 +97%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 22 $84 −$82 -98%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $86 +$173 +202%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $90 +$95 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $187 +$47 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $377 +$254 +67%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Gaming vs CHAOS - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $95 +$205 +216%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $61 −$61 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $44 +$20 +44%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $110 −$109 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $186 −$184 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $193 −$191 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $45 +$35 +79%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $175 −$172 -98%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $56 +$60 +106%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $205 −$202 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $54 −$53 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $17 −$16 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $157 +$153 +97%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $64 −$63 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $43 +$35 +82%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $190 −$187 -98%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $62 −$61 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $196 −$192 -98%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$89 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $62 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $189 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $112 16h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $59 16h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $214 16h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY AlQadsiah Esports 38¢ $19 21h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 67¢ $177 21h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 67¢ $185 21h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 76¢ $190 21h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: largadosypelados (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) BUY largadosypelados 50¢ $56 22h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 46¢ $65 24h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 71¢ $92 25h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch BUY MIBR fe 34¢ $51 28h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch BUY MIBR fe 33¢ $12 28h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 75¢ $453 43h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner BUY AM Gaming 45¢ $43 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 8¢ $38 2d
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY METANOIA WOLVES 41¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $45 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 53¢ $18 2d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 40¢ $63 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL K27 50¢ $111 2d
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 50¢ $157 2d
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 54¢ $175 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 52¢ $168 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $97 3d
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 28¢ $84 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 54¢ $124 3d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 33¢ $40 4d
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY KUUSAMO.gg 32¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.73 · official $363.73 (match) · 280 history records