Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe891…3be8 sports 492 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$341 (+11%) realized +$341 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%271W / 218L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$105
14 days+$100
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$210
other 21% +$85
world 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +25.8% +13.8% 62% 62% +22.2%
≤30d 147 +21.6% +10.1% 61% 61% +8.9%
≤90d 450 +9.3% -1.1% 55% 55% +0.6%
all 489 +10.3% -0.2% 55% 55% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 55% -0.4%
10% -9.8% 54% -9.9%
15% -18.5% 49% -18.6%
20% -26.5% 45% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$341
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses271 / 218
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)489 / 492
History coverage118d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 489 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 46¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $7 +$10 +134%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +172%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +206%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$7 +262%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +101%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +105%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $8 +$9 +119%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +96%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $6 +$4 +62%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $6 +$5 +79%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $2 +$3 +105%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $2 +$3 +152%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $8 +$6 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $8 +$2 +28%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $19 +$18 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $4 55m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $2 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 12h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 13h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 13h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 42¢ $3 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 15h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $4 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 16h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 32¢ $2 35h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $2 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 42h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 42h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $4 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $1 46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $1 46h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 41¢ $3 47h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $3 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $3 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.18 · official $19.18 (match) · 1286 history records