Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E8 0xe88f…686b other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$220 (-34%) realized −$206 · open −$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate24%4W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$178

7 days+$124

14 days+$55

30 days−$17

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-56.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+4.7%	-5.3%	50%	50%	+48.3%
≤30d	7	-40.2%	-45.9%	29%	29%	-14.2%
≤90d	15	-50.7%	-55.4%	27%	27%	-38.8%
all	17	-52.0%	-56.6%	24%	24%	-43.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.6%	24%	-43.9%
10%	-60.8%	18%	-49.3%
15%	-64.5%	18%	-54.2%
20%	-68.0%	12%	-58.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 85% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -50% → late -53% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$32 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.45 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage

Net worth$24

Realized−$206

Unrealized−$14

Win rate (resolved)24%

Wins / losses4 / 13

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage133d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	31¢	20¢	$38	$24	−$14 (-37%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$89	+$158	+176%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 20	$50	+$21	+43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$54	−$54	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$40	−$39	-98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$74	−$72	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	May 06	$30	−$30	-98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	May 05	$21	−$20	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Apr 01	$20	−$19	-95%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	Apr 01	$49	−$49	-100%
Will Mexico vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Apr 01	$11	+$2	+19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31?	Apr 01	$50	−$32	-64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Mar 25	$12	−$12	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Mar 25	$8	+$5	+62%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago	Mar 15	$9	−$2	-24%
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Feb 08	$51	−$51	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	31¢	$39	1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	85¢	$247	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	30¢	$89	25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$54	6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$40	7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	10¢	$31	8d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	12¢	$70	10d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	8¢	$50	10d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	21¢	$74	22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	BUY Yes	23¢	$30	46d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	SELL Up	2¢	$1	81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$20	81d
Will Mexico vs. Belgium end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$13	81d
Will Mexico vs. Belgium end in a draw?	BUY Yes	84¢	$11	81d
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31?	SELL Yes	14¢	$18	81d
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31?	BUY Yes	39¢	$50	81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$12	88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	SELL Up	49¢	$12	88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$8	88d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago	SELL Nongshim RedForce	36¢	$7	98d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago	BUY Nongshim RedForce	47¢	$9	98d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	36¢	$30	103d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?	BUY Yes	37¢	$19	103d
Seahawks vs. Patriots	BUY Patriots	33¢	$51	133d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.06 · official $24.06 (match) · 28 history records