Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe88e…8244 other 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$305 (+14%) realized +$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 40L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$288
14 days+$322
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$322
sports 19% −$18
crypto 1% −$20
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +4.3% -5.6% 57% 57% +14.9%
≤30d 33 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 52% +13.1%
≤90d 72 -7.3% -16.1% 44% 44% +2.4%
all 72 -7.3% -16.1% 44% 44% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 44% +2.4%
10% -24.2% 44% -7.4%
15% -31.5% 43% -16.4%
20% -38.2% 38% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$18 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 40
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage80d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$13 +62%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$50 +124%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$74 +146%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$131 +65%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$18 -35%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $200 +$135 +67%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 −$24 -58%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$15 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 +$11 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Peru: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Ben Shelton May 09 $20 −$16 -80%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $41 −$26 -65%
Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui May 08 $15 +$31 +206%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $82 −$69 -84%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $30 +$23 +75%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$3 -29%
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Coleman Wong May 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $10 +$35 +344%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $51 +$39 +76%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 01 $25 −$25 -99%
Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $30 +$40 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $47 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $20 12h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $20 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $91 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $33 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $335 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $200 6d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $10 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $29 9d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 9d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.24 · official $46.24 (match) · 126 history records