Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe88d…3db1
other · 24 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$77 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$70 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$204
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Open positions8
Markets (closed)16 / 24
History coverage360d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 8 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 37¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? No 50¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 46¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 36¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
2025 June hottest on record? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Another US military action against Iran by June 30? Yes 13¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 12¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 12¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 25¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 05 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? May 05 $43 −$13 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 05 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 05 $28 −$10 -36%
2025 June hottest on record? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $3 $0 +8%
Another US military action against Iran by June 30? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$11
crypto 37% −$52
world 11% −$6
politics 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 30m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33m
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $51 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $39 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 31¢ $31 1h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down $6 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $7 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $30 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $18 38d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 39d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $28 39d
2025 June hottest on record? BUY Yes $5 353d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 353d
Another US military action against Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 354d
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 32¢ $3 354d
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $2 354d
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $3 359d
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 32¢ $3 359d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 359d
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? BUY No 50¢ $8 360d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-67.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +64.8% +49.1% 100% 100% +49.1%
≤30d 1 +64.8% +49.1% 100% 100% +49.1%
≤90d 10 -70.1% -73.0% 10% 10% -42.6%
all 16 -63.8% -67.2% 19% 6% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.2% 6% -47.1%
10% -70.4% 6% -52.2%
15% -73.2% 6% -56.8%
20% -75.8% 6% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.44 · official $204.44 (match) · 31 history records