Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe886…e553 crypto 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$324 (+6%) realized +$324 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%33W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$434
7 days−$434
14 days−$434
30 days+$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$35
sports 23% −$70
finance 2% −$63
other 2% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -56.1% -60.3% 16% 11% -45.5%
≤30d 74 -2.0% -11.4% 35% 30% -2.5%
≤90d 108 -16.0% -24.0% 31% 26% -10.9%
all 112 -18.2% -26.0% 29% 25% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 25% -12.4%
10% -33.1% 25% -20.8%
15% -39.5% 25% -28.4%
20% -45.5% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$32 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$324
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses33 / 79
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage92d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 28 $138 −$8 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 28 $244 −$99 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? Jun 28 $72 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Jun 28 $209 −$82 -39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 28 $32 −$17 -52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 28 $59 −$42 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Jun 28 $27 +$23 +87%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 27 $37 −$20 -54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 18? Jun 27 $40 +$42 +105%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $12 −$6 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $111 −$67 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $78 −$26 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $27 −$12 -47%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $41 +$39 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$28 +106%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $148 +$126 +85%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $60 +$265 +438%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $53 +$68 +128%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 05 $12 −$8 -62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 05 $56 −$56 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 05 $99 −$63 -63%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 5? Jun 05 $22 −$21 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $237 −$23 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $172 −$14 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $69 −$65 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $84 −$73 -87%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 4? Jun 05 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $42 +$31 +74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $53 +$76 +145%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 28? Jun 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $78 7m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $113 7m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? SELL No 6¢ $29 7m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $65 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 7¢ $64 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 14¢ $136 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $127 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY No 8¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $106 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $33 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? SELL No 6¢ $45 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? SELL No 15¢ $50 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 7¢ $63 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $52 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $43 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY No 7¢ $27 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 37h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $53 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? BUY No 4¢ $29 37h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 40¢ $9 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 25¢ $6 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.