Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe884…10a4 politics 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$20
world 25% +$4
sports 9% +$3
tech 5% $0
other 2% +$1
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 25% -8.9%
≤30d 5 +2.6% -7.2% 60% 20% -8.4%
≤90d 15 +1.6% -8.1% 53% 7% -9.9%
all 30 -9.1% -17.7% 50% 20% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 20% -10.4%
10% -25.6% 13% -19.0%
15% -32.8% 7% -26.8%
20% -39.4% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage525d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $164 +$3 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $3 $0 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $18 +$1 +7%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $26 $0 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $354 −$14 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $94 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $160 +$1 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $258 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $7 +$1 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $286 +$1 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $285 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 26 $1 $0 -11%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 07 $19 +$1 +3%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Mar 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 18 $5 $0 -0%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Feb 17 $8 −$3 -34%
Memphis vs. South Florida Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz Feb 14 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12? Feb 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Jackson State Feb 12 $5 +$2 +52%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Fox News Oval Office interview? Feb 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 4? Feb 02 $12 +$2 +16%
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins Jan 08 $5 +$7 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $18 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $41 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $42 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $27 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $29 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $20 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 43¢ $18 8d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $25 51d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 51d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL No 55¢ $164 53d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY No 55¢ $164 53d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL Yes 47¢ $67 53d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes 48¢ $68 54d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 83¢ $22 55d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 83¢ $142 55d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 89¢ $176 55d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $94 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records