Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe883…2f5b other 1173 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1168W / 5L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$13
sports 41% +$5
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 1% +$5
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 290 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 1021 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 1% -9.2%
all 1173 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1168 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1173 / 1173
History coverage114d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1173 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hannibal Mejbri: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Bernhardsson: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Anis Ben Slimane: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Hertl lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Gustaf Nilsson: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Herman Johansson: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Championship" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Kento Shiogai: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 0 - 0 Vila Nova FC? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Justin Kluivert: 2+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 0 - 0 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keito Nakamura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Jearl Margaritha: 3+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Leroy Sané: 3+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Concepción 2 - 2 CD Limache? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Tanger 2 - 3 US Yacoub El Mansour? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 1 - 3 Ranheim? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+3.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 3+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Abdülkerim Bardakcı: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Lyndon Dykes: 1+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Ché Adams: 2+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 2+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Lenny Joseph: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
John McGinn: 2+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bryce Harper: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Rayan: 1+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Michel Aebischer: 2+ shots on target Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Miami Pickleball Club finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Homam Elamin: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: RUSTEC (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Tampereen Ilves leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Turun Palloseura leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: Yokoi (-1.5) vs Chen (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hannibal Mejbri: 1+ assists BUY Yes 100¢ $5 33m
Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Alexander Bernhardsson: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Anis Ben Slimane: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Gustaf Nilsson: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Herman Johansson: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will Tomáš Hertl lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the announcers say "Championship" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 5h
Oumar Diakité: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? BUY Under 99¢ $5 7h
Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Kento Shiogai: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 0 - 0 Vila Nova FC? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Justin Kluivert: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Athletic Club 0 - 0 Goiás EC? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Jearl Margaritha: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will Keito Nakamura be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 11h
Leroy Sané: 3+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $5 12h
Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: CD Concepción 2 - 2 CD Limache? BUY No 100¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: IR Tanger 2 - 3 US Yacoub El Mansour? BUY No 100¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 1 - 3 Ranheim? BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 16h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Oxuji Esports (-3.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+3.5) BUY Oxuji Esports 100¢ $5 18h
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Abdülkerim Bardakcı: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 25h
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $5 25h
Ben Gannon-Doak: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
Lyndon Dykes: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2697 history records