Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe881…fb3d sports 847 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$521 (-1%) realized −$521 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%505W / 341L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$620est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$156
14 days+$233
30 days−$1,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,357
other 10% +$291
crypto 0% −$7
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -9.2% -17.8% 55% 55% -8.2%
≤30d 246 -4.8% -13.8% 60% 57% -14.1%
≤90d 846 -0.4% -9.9% 60% 57% -11.1%
all 846 -0.4% -9.9% 60% 57% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 57% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 52% -19.7%
15% -26.4% 41% -27.4%
20% -33.6% 23% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$52 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$521
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses505 / 341
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$620
Open positions0
Markets (closed)846 / 847
History coverage72d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 846 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $101 +$11 +11%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $101 +$56 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$355 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $469 −$466 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 17 $221 −$221 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $116 +$53 +46%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $799 +$516 +64%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $444 +$352 +79%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $555 −$179 -32%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $507 −$309 -61%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $504 −$105 -21%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $400 +$105 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$42 -41%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$43 -84%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $152 +$106 +70%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $218 +$92 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$79 +78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $504 +$199 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$41 +27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $111 −$111 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $151 −$151 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 13 $333 −$191 -57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$27 -26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$48 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $483 +$132 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $151 +$54 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $151 +$60 +40%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$60 +59%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $183 +$39 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $141 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL Gentle Mates 79¢ $112 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 71¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 70¢ $101 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $101 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06 BUY 37¢ $15 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $861 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $469 20h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 90¢ $10 23h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $51 37h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 49¢ $51 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $116 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,315 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 39h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $798 39h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $796 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 55¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 55¢ $405 2d
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 73¢ $221 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $222 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 69¢ $155 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 29¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 29¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 31¢ $139 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 29¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 73¢ $69 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 79¢ $331 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $400 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $504 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1889 history records