Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe87c…13cb crypto 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$606 (-23%) realized −$766 · open +$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%55W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$479
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -32.2% -38.6% 40% 40% -24.7%
≤30d 5 -32.2% -38.6% 40% 40% -24.7%
≤90d 103 +2.2% -7.5% 53% 50% -32.9%
all 103 +2.2% -7.5% 53% 50% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 50% -32.9%
10% -16.3% 50% -39.4%
15% -24.4% 42% -45.2%
20% -31.8% 26% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$24 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized−$766
Unrealized+$160
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses55 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage90d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 27¢ 54¢ $158 $318 +$160 (+101%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $69 +$17 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7PM ET Mar 22 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 21 $9 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 21 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 21 $4 +$5 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 21 $70 −$66 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 21 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 21 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 21 $3 +$5 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 21 $50 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 21 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 21 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 21 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7AM ET Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 21 $17 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 21 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 21 $7 +$7 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 21 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 21 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 21 $30 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 21 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 21 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 21 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 21 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 21 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 21 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 21 $22 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 21 $18 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 21 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 21 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 21 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $68 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $72 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $86 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $69 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $68 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $34 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $7 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $4 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $33 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $20 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.78 · official $74.71 · 257 history records