Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe87c…5a1a other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-17%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$6
sports 47% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -20.7% -28.3% 29% 25% -29.9%
≤30d 24 -20.7% -28.3% 29% 25% -29.9%
≤90d 24 -20.7% -28.3% 29% 25% -29.9%
all 24 -20.7% -28.3% 29% 25% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 25% -29.9%
10% -35.1% 25% -36.6%
15% -41.4% 25% -42.7%
20% -47.1% 25% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)24 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Michael Olise: 3+ shots Yes 53¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Michael Olise: 3+ shots BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.52 · official $7.49 (match) · 47 history records