Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe87c…a3f9 crypto 480 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-1%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate70%337W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$116
sports 0% −$10
tech 0% +$1
other 0% +$4
world 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +4.3% -5.6% 74% 55% -21.2%
≤30d 192 +0.1% -9.5% 71% 55% -15.7%
≤90d 480 +0.1% -9.5% 70% 58% -12.4%
all 480 +0.1% -9.5% 70% 58% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 58% -12.4%
10% -18.1% 44% -20.8%
15% -26.0% 30% -28.5%
20% -33.3% 16% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses337 / 143
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)480 / 480
History coverage51d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 480 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1406 history records