Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe87b…1a52 sports 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$67 (-2%) realized +$26 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%19W / 275L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days+$109
14 days+$339
30 days+$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$380
other 8% −$30
world 2% +$23
tech 0% −$10
sports 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-85.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +31.1% +18.6% 75% 75% +3.3%
≤30d 14 +28.2% +16.0% 64% 57% +21.8%
≤90d 261 -86.2% -87.5% 6% 5% -6.7%
all 294 -84.3% -85.8% 6% 6% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -85.8% 6% -20.7%
10% -87.2% 5% -28.3%
15% -88.4% 5% -35.2%
20% -89.5% 5% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -93% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$4 · ×10.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses19 / 275
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)294 / 306
History coverage228d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? No 8¢ 10¢ $85 $102 +$17 (+20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $55 $52 −$3 (-5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $27 $2 −$25 (-94%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will Royal Never Give Up win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will Ethan Belchetz be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+49%)
James Collier announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Xan John be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 258 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $303 −$186 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $195 +$65 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 22 $167 +$41 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 22 $59 +$10 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $74 +$65 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $85 −$67 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $112 +$166 +149%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$16 +99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $87 +$240 +278%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 14 $27 −$3 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $9 +$7 +79%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 06 $63 −$59 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $59 +$18 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 03 $24 −$15 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2? May 02 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25? Apr 24 $86 −$82 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 25? Apr 24 $15 −$14 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 25? Apr 24 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $219 +$26 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 24? Apr 23 $24 −$22 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? Apr 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $80 +$45 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 22 $19 −$15 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $12 +$51 +425%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 22? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 22? Apr 21 $57 −$3 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $118 −$43 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $66 +$53 +80%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 20? Apr 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 20? Apr 19 $7 −$7 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $12 −$11 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 18 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $24 +$31 +130%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? Apr 17 $6 −$6 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 17 $34 −$32 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 17? Apr 17 $62 −$9 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 17? Apr 17 $31 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $34 −$4 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 16 $12 −$6 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $27 −$2 -6%
Will Samira Sagr win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $310? Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Y Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 8¢ $27 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 8¢ $64 33m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL No 25¢ $101 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL No 25¢ $104 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL No 24¢ $69 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 14¢ $60 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 18¢ $144 11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $143 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $197 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 19¢ $85 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 9¢ $74 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 41h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 41h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 42h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? SELL No 30¢ $206 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 14¢ $106 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $162 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $37 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 24¢ $235 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $73 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $32 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $46 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $83 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $37 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.55 · official $168.55 (match) · 665 history records