Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E8 0xe879…6d22 world 395 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,555 (+8%) realized +$18,611 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate80%311W / 80L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$568per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,665
7 days+$11,292
14 days+$9,652
30 days+$12,929
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$10,341
other 5% +$648
crypto 2% +$7,190
politics 2% −$184
economics 1% +$25
sports 1% +$179
finance 0% +$67
tech 0% +$38
weather 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +7.3% -2.9% 88% 33% +6.6%
≤30d 102 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 20% -2.3%
≤90d 269 +1.9% -7.8% 81% 30% -1.6%
all 391 +1.1% -8.5% 80% 29% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 29% -2.0%
10% -17.3% 13% -11.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.3% 7% -20.0%
20% -32.6% 3% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$166 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$1,121
Realized+$18,611
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses311 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)391 / 395
History coverage108d
Avg bet$568
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $887 $832 −$55 (-6%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $240 $238 −$2 (-1%)
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 85¢ 82¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $187 +$60 +32%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $2,641 +$300 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $66 +$16 +24%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $200 −$40 -20%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $1,715 −$121 -7%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $293 +$42 +14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $232 −$119 -51%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 17 $520 +$72 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $15,887 +$6,424 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $11,776 +$885 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6,903 +$3,142 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +21%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 15 $186 +$9 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $233 +$13 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $192 +$6 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $1,167 +$119 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $208 +$42 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $222 +$28 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $457 +$47 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5,652 +$132 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $238 +$12 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $238 +$12 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $210 +$40 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 12 $324 +$14 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $567 +$24 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 12 $220 +$13 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $210 +$8 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $1,124 +$38 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $1,526 +$70 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $3,478 +$582 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $178 +$14 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $684 +$50 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $578 +$42 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $825 +$10 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $395 +$10 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $54 −$50 -91%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $112 +$108 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2,732 −$838 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $567 +$65 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $248 +$14 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,216 +$283 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $546 +$29 +5%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $242 +$8 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $810 +$26 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 8? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,234 +$291 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $44 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $17 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $154 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $71 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $197 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $350 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $43 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $235 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $230 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $345 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $340 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $310 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $241 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $74 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $320 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $244 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $330 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $205 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $210 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $113 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $335 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,120.57 · official $1,120.57 (match) · 3114 history records