Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe876…c671 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$23 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%49W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$447
7 days+$203
14 days+$181
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$310
world 20% −$18
crypto 17% −$54
politics 7% −$50
sports 3% −$87
tech 2% −$116
finance 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 50% +0.6%
≤30d 18 -21.7% -29.2% 44% 39% -1.9%
≤90d 39 -9.6% -18.2% 49% 46% -1.0%
all 110 -11.9% -20.3% 45% 40% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 40% -9.4%
10% -27.9% 36% -18.1%
15% -34.9% 26% -26.0%
20% -41.3% 20% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$27 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$1,197
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses49 / 61
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)110 / 123
History coverage584d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $148 $148 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $52 −$32 -62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $772 +$479 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $169 −$168 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $116 +$53 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $77 +$39 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $210 −$183 -87%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$25 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $245 +$140 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $169 +$178 +105%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $164 +$6 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $17 −$6 -35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $94 −$75 -80%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $42 −$25 -58%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $305 +$52 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $27 −$3 -10%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 02 $21 +$12 +60%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 01 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $141 +$39 +28%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 26 $123 +$20 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Apr 15 $8 −$4 -52%
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $20 +$15 +74%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 12 $15 −$12 -80%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? Apr 11 $75 +$19 +25%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 10 $21 +$39 +186%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $13 +$7 +56%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 06 $13 $0 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 06 $14 $0 -2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 03 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $16 +$11 +72%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 31 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 24 $20 −$13 -63%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $18 −$13 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 20? Mar 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Mar 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 16 $17 +$13 +72%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 13 $15 −$7 -49%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 07 $32 −$7 -22%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $6 −$4 -67%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 28 $17 +$13 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $20 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $52 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $97 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $99 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $772 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $169 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $116 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $27 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $109 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,196.57 · official $1,196.59 (match) · 434 history records