Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E8 0xe871…8eae sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-7%) realized −$45 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$240
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -33.6% -39.9% 50% 50% -49.6%
≤30d 4 -33.6% -39.9% 50% 50% -49.6%
≤90d 4 -33.6% -39.9% 50% 50% -49.6%
all 4 -33.6% -39.9% 50% 50% -49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 50% -49.6%
10% -45.7% 25% -54.4%
15% -50.9% 25% -58.8%
20% -55.7% 0% -62.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$152 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 31¢ 30¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $135 −$134 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $118 +$18 +15%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $180 −$170 -95%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $106 +$48 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $97 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $135 4h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $136 4h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 86¢ $118 4h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala SELL Elina Svitolina 3¢ $10 5h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 24¢ $26 5h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 68¢ $154 7h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) SELL Zverev 100¢ $155 7h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 72¢ $32 9h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 63¢ $7 9h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 67¢ $68 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.30 · official $93.30 (match) · 11 history records