Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E8 0xe871…8ae7 other 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$686 (+12%) realized +$801 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$902now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$270
7 days+$259
14 days+$435
30 days+$435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$809
sports 32% +$204
crypto 27% +$1,346
world 1% +$12
politics 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +34.6% +21.8% 65% 65% +7.2%
≤30d 28 +38.5% +25.3% 68% 68% +13.6%
≤90d 30 +35.6% +22.7% 67% 67% +12.4%
all 46 +14.8% +3.8% 54% 52% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 52% +8.1%
10% -6.1% 50% -2.3%
15% -15.2% 50% -11.7%
20% -23.5% 50% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$81 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$902
Realized+$801
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions20
Markets (closed)46 / 68
History coverage236d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $220 $245 +$25 (+11%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 65¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $120 $109 −$11 (-9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 53¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $120 $100 −$20 (-17%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 45¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? No 43¢ 7¢ $100 $16 −$84 (-84%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$43 +84%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $101 +$58 +57%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $112 +$144 +128%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$69 +269%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$37 +144%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $101 +$60 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $87 +$66 +76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $91 +$100 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 +$16 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $112 +$122 +109%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $153 +$138 +90%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $1,508 +$1,349 +89%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $700 −$699 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during the Black History Month rec Feb 23 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Trump say "Black American" 5+ times during the Black History Mont Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times at Fort Bragg on Friday? Feb 14 $10 +$24 +241%
Will Trump say "ISIS" at Fort Bragg on Friday? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $50 −$19 -38%
Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 30 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $2 $0 +10%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025? Dec 08 $20 +$52 +261%
Will Israel strike 4 or more countries in November 2025? Oct 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in November 2025? Oct 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $44 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 53¢ $51 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $103 27h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $112 27h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 39h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 3¢ $10 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 27¢ $26 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 40¢ $25 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: B BUY 33¢ $61 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $87 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 5d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $91 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 8d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 8d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 10d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 10d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 10d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $902.38 · official $902.65 (match) · 299 history records