Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E8 0xe86c…3f03 other 16 markets active 5h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3,820 (+12%) realized +$3,543 · open +$277
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,017per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$6,276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$3,597
crypto 1% +$75
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +8.5% -1.9% 67% 33% +4.4%
all 4 +27.8% +15.6% 75% 50% +4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.6% 50% +4.4%
10% ← realistic here +4.6% 50% -5.6%
15% -5.5% 25% -14.7%
20% -14.8% 25% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,132 vs −$1 · ×1470.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4411.11 per $1 lost it wins $4411.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$6,276
Realized+$3,543
Unrealized+$277
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)4 / 16
History coverage94d
Avg bet$2,017
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $1,094 $1,551 +$456 (+42%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $601 $1,409 +$807 (+134%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $1,094 $747 −$348 (-32%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $757 $692 −$64 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $655 $409 −$247 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $568 $382 −$186 (-33%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $270 $341 +$71 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $385 $267 −$118 (-31%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $122 $179 +$57 (+47%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $182 $132 −$51 (-28%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $135 $91 −$44 (-32%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $135 $78 −$57 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30? Apr 21 $11,995 +$486 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 02 $10 −$1 -8%
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? Apr 01 $9,991 +$2,904 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $44 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $57 5h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $83 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $114 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $175 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $228 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $249 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $258 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $447 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $487 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $906 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,008 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $209 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $232 21d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $232 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $313 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $463 21d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $660 21d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $972 21d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,030 21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,122 21d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,295 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,870 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,870 21d
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,999 86d
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $9,996 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $9 88d
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? BUY No 86¢ $791 94d
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? BUY No 83¢ $3,000 94d
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? BUY No 80¢ $1,200 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,276.32 · official $6,276.32 (match) · 61 history records