Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe868…c4b6 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$2
other 18% $0
politics 9% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 57% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.9%
all 36 -7.9% -16.7% 56% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -24.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -31.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -38.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage467d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $52 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $28 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $57 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Dec 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 26 $6 $0 +5%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 26 $5 $0 -0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $14 $0 +3%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $26 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $23 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $1 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $24 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $28 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $20 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $31 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $29 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $29 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $15 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $13 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.87 · official $29.85 (match) · 106 history records