Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe868…d884 crypto 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$252 (+1%) realized +$245 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%79W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$91
14 days+$141
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$248
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 30 +0.7% -8.9% 93% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 67 +0.4% -9.1% 97% 0% -8.7%
all 81 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,007) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×20.0 per $1 lost it wins $20.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$1,229
Realized+$245
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses79 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage104d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,217 $1,224 +$7 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,203 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,187 +$16 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,167 +$21 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $387 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $770 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,146 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,136 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,125 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,116 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,111 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,103 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,095 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,091 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,077 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,071 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,031 +$40 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,019 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,009 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,008 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $948 −$13 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,011 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $997 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 30? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $1,218 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1,217 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $539 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $664 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $1,202 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $1,187 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $118 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $1,040 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $389 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $777 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $770 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $156 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $217 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $910 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $235 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $1,136 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $1,125 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1,116 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,111 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,103 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $27 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $497 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $22 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $188 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $258 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $90 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,229.30 · official $1,229.30 (match) · 220 history records