Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe868…958a
sports · 250 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$395 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$428 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$428
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses59 / 190
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage222d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 249 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days−$37
30 days−$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +237%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $7 −$5 -66%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $22 −$14 -64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 +$13 +206%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-24? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-21? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $41 −$16 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 21 $18 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $5 −$3 -66%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playof May 20 $199 −$199 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 −$5 -51%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 13? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $1 +$5 +510%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 12? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: RC Celta de Vigo 3 - 1 Levante UD? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Julian Alvarez: Anytime Goalscorer May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Williot Swedberg: Anytime Goalscorer May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 13? May 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $1 +$3 +286%
Bengaluru 2: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Sasikumar Mukund May 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $8 +$17 +206%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% −$311
other 28% −$36
crypto 9% −$79
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 17m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 1¢ $0 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $2 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 11¢ $3 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 6¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 95¢ $11 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $2 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 27¢ $3 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $4 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 43¢ $8 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 17¢ $3 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 81¢ $19 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 13¢ $3 10d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 10¢ $1 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 45¢ $12 20d
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.5% -21.7% 33% 33% +8.5%
≤30d 30 -55.2% -59.5% 17% 17% -76.6%
≤90d 219 -16.5% -24.5% 26% 24% -31.2%
all 249 -19.2% -26.9% 24% 22% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 22% -31.7%
10% -33.9% 22% -38.3%
15% -40.3% 20% -44.2%
20% -46.1% 20% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.50 · official $4.50 (match) · 777 history records