Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

E8 0xe867…93d2 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$587 (-15%) realized −$598 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate32%8W / 17L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day5.9pace

Fees−$30est.

Kalshi-fit49%portable

Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)-15.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+11.2%	+0.6%	38%	38%	+70.5%
≤30d	25	-6.6%	-15.5%	32%	32%	+57.0%
≤90d	25	-6.6%	-15.5%	32%	32%	+57.0%
all	25	-6.6%	-15.5%	32%	32%	+57.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.5%	32%	+57.0%
10%	-23.6%	32%	+41.9%
15%	-31.0%	32%	+28.2%
20%	-37.7%	28%	+15.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +74% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +74% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -67% → late +49% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$299 vs −$51 · ×5.89 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$371

Realized−$598

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)32%

Wins / losses8 / 17

Est. fees paid−$30

Open positions5

Markets (closed)25 / 47

History coverage8d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day5.9

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	Under	44¢	44¢	$135	$137	+$2 (+1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime?	Yes	48¢	56¢	$75	$88	+$13 (+18%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$75	$73	−$2 (-3%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Draw at halftime?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 AN	Jun 27	$128	+$378	+296%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$300	+$511	+170%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$102	−$100	-98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime?	Jun 26	$117	+$96	+83%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	Jun 25	$82	−$80	-98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$153	+$61	+40%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$20	−$20	-97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$100	−$98	-98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime?	Jun 25	$51	+$110	+216%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegov	Jun 24	$68	+$135	+197%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN	Jun 24	$148	+$356	+240%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 23	$28	−$27	-98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar?	Jun 23	$26	−$25	-97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar?	Jun 23	$27	−$26	-97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 1 Qatar?	Jun 23	$23	−$22	-97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$103	−$100	-98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	Jun 21	$256	+$749	+293%
Raphinha: 1+ goals	Jun 19	$76	−$75	-98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$41	−$40	-98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$27	−$26	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	16¢	$77	1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$26	1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	48¢	$76	1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	29¢	$51	1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND	BUY	10¢	$32	4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY	43¢	$250	4h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-	BUY	3¢	$28	12h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	44¢	$137	12h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR	BUY	6¢	$40	14h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will DR Cong	BUY	5¢	$65	18h
IR Iran leading at halftime? AND Belgium leading at halftime?	BUY	16¢	$33	18h
Egypt leading at halftime? AND Belgium leading at halftime?	BUY	20¢	$50	18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	3¢	$15	23h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 AN	BUY	25¢	$128	24h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Ar	BUY	8¢	$25	24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$102	30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	36¢	$300	31h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	28¢	$82	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	2d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	59¢	$213	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25	BUY	28¢	$117	2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	54¢	$117	2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	6¢	$20	2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	41¢	$100	2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. G	BUY	22¢	$102	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	10¢	$51	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	BUY	19¢	$51	3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	31¢	$51	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegov	BUY	33¢	$68	3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	13¢	$28	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.53 · official $713.55 · 55 history records