Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe865…5a0c
crypto · 613 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,301 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,290 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$19
Realized−$1,290
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses155 / 432
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions26
Markets (closed)587 / 613
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 26 History 587 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$18
14 days−$38
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +43%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 −$10 -52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $35 +$7 +20%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $19 +$3 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$13 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 01 $20 −$17 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? Jun 01 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? Jun 01 $11 −$4 -37%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 28 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 28 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 28 $13 −$10 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 28 $10 +$12 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 09 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 09 $4 +$5 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 09 $9 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 08 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 08 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 08 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 08 $1 +$3 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$1,211
other 5% +$63
politics 3% −$124
finance 1% −$23
world 1% +$2
sports 0% −$4
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -19.9% -27.6% 30% 30% -19.5%
≤30d 34 -20.7% -28.2% 29% 29% -26.8%
≤90d 567 -28.2% -35.0% 27% 25% -27.8%
all 587 -29.7% -36.4% 26% 24% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 24% -26.5%
10% -42.5% 22% -33.5%
15% -48.0% 20% -39.9%
20% -53.1% 19% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.16 · official $19.16 (match) · 2265 history records