Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe864…c3c4 other 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$211 (-3%) realized −$208 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%72W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$7
other 40% −$318
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -29.6% -36.3% 42% 33% -25.2%
≤30d 14 -31.7% -38.2% 43% 36% -28.0%
≤90d 135 -5.3% -14.3% 47% 39% -13.4%
all 155 -4.3% -13.5% 46% 39% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 39% -13.5%
10% -21.7% 33% -21.8%
15% -29.3% 26% -29.4%
20% -36.2% 21% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$23 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses72 / 83
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions6
Markets (closed)155 / 161
History coverage100d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $75 $86 +$11 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $75 $62 −$13 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $54 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$16 +47%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$13 -82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$11 -69%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$28 -80%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 +$23 +51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$31 -51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 +$7 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$6 -52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $29 +$12 +41%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 17 $100 −$81 -82%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $71 −$70 -98%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $19 −$9 -46%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $13 −$3 -21%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 09 $13 +$5 +40%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $96 −$6 -7%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $50 −$33 -67%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $44 +$10 +23%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $16 −$13 -82%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $76 +$18 +24%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? May 09 $20 +$28 +142%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 09 $50 −$6 -13%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $53 −$28 -53%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $14 +$8 +55%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $60 −$59 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra May 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 09 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Nantes end in a draw? May 08 $77 +$3 +4%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $125 −$75 -60%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $231 −$156 -68%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? May 08 $41 −$21 -52%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $57 −$41 -73%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $53 +$35 +67%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $48 +$10 +20%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $102 −$68 -66%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 07 $33 −$32 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean May 07 $38 −$19 -51%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jacob Fearnley vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perric May 07 $51 +$70 +137%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic May 07 $18 −$16 -86%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Merida Agu May 07 $82 +$6 +8%
Wuxi: Alafia Ayeni vs Soon-Woo Kwon May 07 $299 +$10 +3%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $67 −$65 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $37 −$24 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $39 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $30 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $49 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $42 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $12 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $29 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $77 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 7d
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.81 · official $329.81 (match) · 400 history records