Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E8
0xe862…fa26
crypto · 24 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$8 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$9
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +5.5% -4.5% 71% 46% -2.6%
≤30d 24 +5.5% -4.5% 71% 46% -2.6%
≤90d 24 +5.5% -4.5% 71% 46% -2.6%
all 24 +5.5% -4.5% 71% 46% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 46% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 29% -11.9%
15% -22.0% 12% -20.4%
20% -29.7% 4% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records