Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E8 0xe85f…ba5d other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+12%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$41
sports 6% −$7
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.5% +4.5% 58% 58% +24.0%
≤30d 12 +15.5% +4.5% 58% 58% +24.0%
≤90d 12 +15.5% +4.5% 58% 58% +24.0%
all 12 +15.5% +4.5% 58% 58% +24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 58% +24.0%
10% -5.5% 50% +12.1%
15% -14.6% 50% +1.3%
20% -23.0% 42% -8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.62 per $1 lost it wins $3.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 +$17 +136%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 +$4 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $16 +$2 +13%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$10 +152%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 +$5 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$2 -13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 +$4 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $35 13m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 55m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $29 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $16 28h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 41h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $11 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.33 · official $34.33 (match) · 23 history records