Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe85e…7961 world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%25W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$8
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$5
sports 39% −$7
other 13% −$4
politics 6% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.5% -6.4% 40% 10% -10.7%
≤30d 34 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 44 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 2% -9.7%
all 79 -0.8% -10.2% 32% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses25 / 54
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage299d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $152 −$11 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $94 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $183 +$3 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $90 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $8 −$3 -41%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $101 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $92 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $115 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $15 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $92 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $148 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $290 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $159 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $268 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $190 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $84 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $105 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $4 $0 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $92 +$3 +3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $616 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $616 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $160 −$11 -7%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $219 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $625 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $143 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $623 +$1 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 22 $1 $0 -12%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $86 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $72 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $63 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $94 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $94 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $7 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $100 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $91 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.94 · official $85.94 (match) · 314 history records