Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe85e…79fe crypto 531 markets active 6d ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$821 (-8%) realized −$821 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate28%149W / 382L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day59.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$147
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$198
weather 13% −$15
world 2% +$3
other 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -63.1% -66.7% 15% 15% -67.7%
≤30d 77 -34.3% -40.5% 23% 21% -29.7%
≤90d 531 -3.4% -12.6% 28% 20% -11.5%
all 531 -3.4% -12.6% 28% 20% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 20% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 17% -20.0%
15% -28.6% 15% -27.7%
20% -35.6% 13% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$821
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses149 / 382
Open positions0
Markets (closed)531 / 531
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day59.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 531 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$5 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$2 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$2 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$5 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $8 −$3 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$6 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $12 +$8 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$6 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$3 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 −$5 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$3 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $8 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records