Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E8 0xe85e…6bd0 politics 14 markets active 3h ago coverage 140d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$431 (-24%) realized +$55 · open −$486
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$462
other 1% +$1
sports 1% $0
finance 0% +$14
economics 0% +$15
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.5% -12.7% 33% 33% +15.7%
≤30d 3 -3.5% -12.7% 33% 33% +15.7%
≤90d 7 +7.9% -2.4% 43% 43% +21.0%
all 10 +32.1% +19.5% 50% 50% +20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 50% +20.9%
10% +8.1% 50% +9.3%
15% -2.3% 40% -1.2%
20% -11.9% 40% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$1,156
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$486
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage140d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1,600 $1,116 −$485 (-30%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Yes $19 $17 −$2 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+23%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Jun 15 $54 −$24 -44%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $42 +$56 +134%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $5 +$4 +78%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 15 $7 +$14 +188%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $6 +$15 +251%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jan 29 $25 −$5 -19%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January? Jan 27 $4 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes $10 3h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? SELL No 11¢ $30 3h
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes $5 46h
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? BUY Yes $4 2d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? SELL No 100¢ $98 2d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No $2 6d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 42¢ $19 6d
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY No 18¢ $8 6d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 42¢ $22 6d
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY No 19¢ $46 6d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No $2 6d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $66 8d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $200 8d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 8d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 38d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 45d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $700 45d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 55d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 55d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 86¢ $21 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 29¢ $7 73d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $300 73d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 124d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $48 126d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 129d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $75 131d
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 135d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 136d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL Yes $20 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,156.04 · official $1,156.04 (match) · 159 history records