trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +33.1% | +20.4% | 80% | 60% | +22.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +28.7% | +16.4% | 83% | 50% | +22.3% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -4.7% | -13.8% | 29% | 18% | -29.3% |
| all | 17 | -4.7% | -13.8% | 29% | 18% | -29.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.8% | 18% | -29.3% |
| 10% | -22.0% | 18% | -36.1% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 12% | -42.3% |
| 20% | -36.4% | 12% | -47.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? | Yes | 56¢ | 55¢ | $162 | $160 | −$3 (-2%) |
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $156 | $124 | −$32 (-21%) |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $44 | $38 | −$6 (-13%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee | Jun 15 | $31 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Jun 15 | $21 | +$7 | +34% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Jun 15 | $21 | −$12 | -56% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | Jun 14 | $21 | +$23 | +114% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $38 | +$26 | +70% |
| Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 | May 29 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | May 16 | $520 | −$22 | -4% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 11 | $123 | −$20 | -16% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 07 | $728 | −$453 | -62% |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Apr 30 | $65 | −$36 | -55% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Apr 30 | $497 | −$103 | -21% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 24 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Apr 24 | $780 | −$50 | -6% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | Apr 21 | $50 | −$12 | -25% |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | Apr 18 | $50 | −$5 | -11% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 15 | $10 | −$5 | -50% |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | Apr 15 | $50 | −$1 | -1% |