Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe858…01d3 crypto 190 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+5%) realized +$55 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate72%137W / 52L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day98.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 +3.0% -6.8% 72% 70% -6.1%
≤30d 189 +3.0% -6.8% 72% 70% -6.1%
≤90d 189 +3.0% -6.8% 72% 70% -6.1%
all 189 +3.0% -6.8% 72% 70% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 70% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 60% -15.0%
15% -23.9% 44% -23.3%
20% -31.3% 19% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses137 / 52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)189 / 190
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day98.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $4.53 · 388 history records