Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe857…cb6a crypto 892 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,892 (+7%) realized +$1,892 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%253W / 844L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,789
other 1% +$99
sports 1% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 -88.8% -89.9% 5% 5% -94.9%
≤30d 245 -83.6% -85.1% 9% 8% -88.6%
≤90d 401 -68.3% -71.3% 12% 12% -70.4%
all 1097 -38.2% -44.0% 23% 23% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.0% 23% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here -49.4% 22% -35.3%
15% -54.3% 21% -41.5%
20% -58.8% 19% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$25 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,892
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses253 / 844
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1097 / 892
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1097 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $9 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $49 −$52 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $80 −$73 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $344 −$344 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $9 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $8 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records