Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe856…4222 crypto 602 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$122 (-4%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%338W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$45
14 days−$68
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +23.3% +11.6% 67% 66% -16.8%
≤30d 602 +26.9% +14.9% 56% 55% -17.2%
≤90d 602 +26.9% +14.9% 56% 55% -17.2%
all 602 +26.9% +14.9% 56% 55% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.9% 55% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here +3.9% 52% -25.1%
15% -6.2% 40% -32.4%
20% -15.4% 29% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses338 / 264
Open positions0
Markets (closed)602 / 602
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 602 Trades
no open positions (260 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $7 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 977 history records