Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E8 0xe853…631f world 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%41W / 47L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$38
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$84
other 25% +$23
politics 2% +$1
sports 1% +$10
tech 0% +$4
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 30 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 42 -1.9% -11.2% 36% 2% -10.3%
all 88 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 6% -9.9%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses41 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage492d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $82 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $108 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $82 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $83 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $202 −$3 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $164 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $172 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $252 −$19 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $118 −$17 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $245 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $380 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $394 +$3 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $247 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $117 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $57 +$6 +11%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $234 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $383 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 +10%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $788 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $108 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $118 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $117 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $3 −$1 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $121 −$10 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $154 −$36 -23%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $25 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $30 −$7 -23%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $1,019 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $1,017 +$3 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 30 $1,116 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -80%
Will María Galindo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $21 +$24 +118%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $82 26m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $82 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $26 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $26 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $77 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $82 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $82 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $82 36h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $73 36h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $74 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $36 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $82 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $48 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $83 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $83 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $83 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $83 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $82 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $82 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $82 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records